Russia’s foreign minister has promised that Moscow will retaliate if Britain imposes fresh sanctions over Ukraine as focus shifted from the frontlines and back to a war of words after Putin signalled he was open to talks.
Sergei Lavrov, who has been leading negotiations with NATO and the US, said in Moscow today that ‘hysteria’ over an invasion is ‘puzzling’ to Russia while accusing the allies of trying to dictate where Putin can position troops on his own territory.
He spoke after the UK on Tuesday threatened to block Russian companies from raising capital in London and to expose the owners of properties and companies – a loophole that some Russians use to hide wealth in this country.
His comments mark the opening salvo of renewed negotiations between East and West over the fate of Ukraine, after Moscow said Tuesday that it was withdrawing some forces and was ready to talk about new European security treaties.
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said earlier today that he has seen no sign that Russia’s withdrawal is genuine, rubbishing videos of tanks being taken away as routine troop movements. Russia actually appears to be increasing its forces, he added.
‘If they really start to withdraw , that’s something we will welcome. But that remains to be seen,’ he added while sitting down for a NATO summit in Brussels on next moves. ‘Just seeing the movement of battle tanks doesn’t confirm a real withdrawal.’
Ben Wallace, UK defence secretary, sounded a similar note of caution as he arrived for the summit – saying that Russia’s forces remain at a high level of readiness that can be maintained for ‘weeks’ as talks resume at the barrel of a gun.
‘It’s pretty clear that [Russia’s] intentions towards Ukraine are to change their behaviour, and indeed change NATO’s relationship with Ukraine, and they’re doing so at the threat of invasion,’ he added.
Underlining concerns about the Russian ‘withdrawal’, analysts from Conflict Intelligence Team – a respected group which tracks Russian military movements – said forces being withdrawn from Crimea will actually be moved closer to Ukraine.
Moscow says the units are being moved to their ‘home bases’, but the homes of at least three of the four units leaving Crimea are as close or closer than their current position relative to Ukraine.
About Ukraine.
Izvestia newspaper reported that units of the 3rd, 42nd and 150th Motorised Rifle Divisions are being sent back to their permanent bases.
Yet the 3rd is based at Valuyki and Boguchar, respectively 15 and 42 miles from the Ukrainian border in Belgorod and Voronezh regions respectively.
The 150th is based in Novocherkassk, Rostov region, some 31 miles from the border.
The troops will be as close – or closer – to the border at their permanent barracks.
Of the three named divisions being pulled out of Crimea, only the 42nd – in Chechnya – is a substantial distance from Ukraine, some 700 miles away.
It comes a day after Putin said he is willing to engage in negotiations with the West over security guarantees designed to ease sky-high tensions.
Both Mr Stoltenburg and Mr Wallace did welcome the change in tone from Moscow, while pointing out that the crisis is far from over.
‘There’s over 100 battalion tactical groups of the Russian ground forces, that’s 60 per cent of the entire Russian land combat power on the borders of Ukraine,’ Mr Wallace said.
‘130,000-plus troops, both in Belarus and indeed Ukraine, but also out at sea there’s effectively a significant flotilla of Russian and amphibious landing ships, and indeed war ships and missile ships.
‘From a Ukrainian point of view they’re fairly surrounded by a very large force of ready troops. That continues, they haven’t taken the foot of the gas.’
He added: ‘That’s why we’re all here at Nato today and tomorrow to try and work together to reduce tensions and try and de-escalate.’
Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, added his voice to the chorus – saying he hasn’t seen ‘any withdrawal yet’.
Putin wants Ukraine to be banned from joining NATO and for the alliance to withdraw troops from ex-Soviet states.
Both of those demands have been dismissed but a range of other compromises have been offered on arms control, transparency around missile deployments, and information-sharing on military drills that Putin has said he is willing to discuss.
Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister and chief negotiator, has said a 10-page response to NATO’s offers has been prepared though not yet sent.
Kyiv Mayor Wladimir Klitschko has said that he hopes for a ‘last-minute’ diplomatic solution between Russia and Ukraine.
The former heavyweight champion of the world told LBC that he hoped that Russia would not invade his country on Wednesday.
‘It is the first time in the history of Ukraine that so many Russian soldiers stayed at the border’, he said.
‘The risk (of) aggression towards Ukraine is pretty big. We prepare for any scenario.
‘We do not know how the situation will develop but we hope that the invasion does not happen, and that at the last minute we have a diplomatic solution.’
Meanwhile the former head of MI6 Sir John Sawers said that the threat of a ‘full-blooded’ Russian invasion has now ‘receded’ after Putin made ‘a number of important gains’ in the military standoff.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Sir John said that invasion was always ‘very risky’ for Putin and the threat of an attack was perhaps not as real as some governments had made out.
‘I don’t think that President Putin ever decided to invade the country and, indeed, I think it would always have been a very risky course for him to have taken,’ he said.
‘But I think Russia has also come out of this with a number of important gains,’ he added, saying it has got Russia’s security concerns back to the top of the international security agenda, the Ukrainians have been intimidated and Europeans have been reminded how dependent they are on Russian gas.
Sir John added: ‘I think in some ways President Putin will think he’s ahead on points on this and he still has various military options which he can use in Ukraine.
‘I think the risk of full-blooded invasion … was never quite as high as was being portrayed by some Western governments, but I think that has receded.’
Ukrainian leaders have repeatedly sought to project calm but also strength during the crisis.
In an apparent show of defiance, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared that Wednesday would be a ‘day of national unity,’ calling on citizens to display the blue-and-yellow flag and sing the national anthem in the face of ‘hybrid threats.’
Even amid the glimmers of hope, Biden said 150,000 Russian forces are now massed near Ukraine and in neighboring Belarus – an increase from an earlier U.S. estimate of 130,000 troops.
Russia’s claim that it pulled back troops ‘would be good, but we have not yet verified that,’ Biden said. ‘Indeed, our analysts indicate that they remain very much in a threatening position.’
Russia has denied having any invasion plans. It wants the West to keep Ukraine and other former Soviet nations out of NATO, halt weapons deployments near Russian borders and roll back forces from Eastern Europe.
The U.S. and its allies have roundly rejected those demands, but they offered to engage in talks with Russia on ways to bolster security in Europe.
Speaking after meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Putin said the West agreed to discuss a ban on missile deployment to Europe, restrictions on military drills and other confidence-building measures – issues that Moscow put on the table years ago.
He said Russia is open to discuss ‘some of those elements,’ but added that it would do so only in combination ‘with the main issues that are of primary importance for us.’
While Scholz reiterated that NATO’s eastward expansion ‘is not on the agenda – everyone knows that very well,’ Putin retorted that Moscow will not be assuaged by such assurances.
‘They are telling us it won’t happen tomorrow,’ Putin said. ‘Well, when will it happen? The day after tomorrow? What does it change for us in the historic perspective? Nothing.’
Scholz also said diplomatic options are ‘far from exhausted,’ and he praised the announcement of a troop withdrawal as a ‘good signal,’ adding: ‘We hope that more will follow.’
The Russian Defense Ministry released images of tanks and howitzers rolling onto railway platforms and more tanks rolling across snowy fields.
It did not disclose where or when the images were taken, or where the vehicles were headed, other than ‘to places of permanent deployment.’
