As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, it seems as if uncertainty has been our only certainty. While we’re learning so much about the virus, some of our previous theories have been wrong. 

Or, we may have been partially right about aspects of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 and the disease it causes. This means, of course, that we’ve also been partially wrong. 

Although the disease has reached so many places around the world and disrupted lives in so many ways, there’s still so much we don’t know about it. For one, many experts suspect that we’re still experiencing a first wave of outbreaks. They’re also wondering what happens after that:

• Will a second wave occur?
• Why or why not will a second wave occur?
• If a second wave does occur, what will it look like?

With so many questions, we’re wondering if we’ll be able to answer them and apply any answers in significant ways.

Will a second wave occur? Why or why not?

Simply put, a second wave is a second large outbreak of COVID-19. Since individual countries (and regions within countries) experienced outbreaks at different times and outbreaks of different magnitudes, discussing first and second waves of outbreaks is complicated, to say the least. 

For example, the United States reported its first COVID-19 case on January 20, 2020. More than seven months later, on September 1, 2020, the country reported 37,068 new cases on that day alone. Given that the country has reported a steady increase in cases since January, in view of the Bipartisan Policy Center, the country was still experiencing a first wave of outbreaks in September.

Other experts question whether the United States was indeed still experiencing a first wave in September 2020. They theorize that the disease may progress as a continuous series of outbreaks instead of more distinct large waves. In July 2020, prominent epidemiologist Michael Osterholm said there might not be other waves of the disease, just a string of outbreaks that occur in places and situations where people don’t take proper precautions. 

Even Osterholm, an expert in infectious diseases, says that he really doesn’t know if this continual progression will occur. Discussing the virus on the Conversations with Dr. Bauchner podcast, he said that previous predictions about it have been incorrect: “The more we learn, the more humble we need to be about what it means.” 

What would a second wave look like?

On the other hand, since the start of the pandemic, others have speculated that a second wave of the disease could occur. They just don’t agree when it could occur and what it could look like. 

Some experts have said that some individual places in the United States already concluded their first wave while other regions in the country have continued to grapple with it. Drew Armstrong, the senior health care editor at Bloomberg News, wrote in September 2020 that the reopening of businesses and schools could create a second wave in New York City, a city hit particularly hard by the disease in the spring of that year. 

Additional waves could include increased numbers of virus transmissions and the need for more hospital beds, according to Armstrong. Research groups at the city’s New York University and Columbia University have been creating and releasing models to help government leaders and others make public health decisions. 

Some medical professionals have stated that a second disease wave will occur but haven’t seemed to specify when. Instead, they discussed what this second wave could look like. 

We know more about the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 since the first wave, said professionals quoted in a September 2020 article by Advisory Board, a firm specializing in health care research and solutions. This knowledge could shape what happens in the second. 

Using this experience, doctors are taking more preventative measures to treat patients with COVID-19, such as prescribing blood thinners to prevent potential vascular problems associated with the disease and using less-invasive measures instead of ventilators to address virus-related respiratory concerns. At the same time, doctors and other health experts also warn that seasonal influenza (flu) outbreaks could make COVID-19 resurgences more deadly. 

Experts acknowledge that taking preventative measures and learning even more about the virus could help us prevent its spread and destruction. 

Why is it useful to discuss COVID-19?

Discussing the progression of COVID-19 could be a preventative measure. It could help leaders and people create more normal lives in abnormal times. 

Limiting coronavirus transmission by taking wearing masks, social distancing, self-isolating, testing, and contact tracing might also help us avoid (or avoid repeating) some of the more extreme measures many regions have taken earlier during the pandemic. 

Government stay-at-home orders and other pandemic-related disruptions have created financial difficulties, stress, and boredom for many. To cope with these problems, some people experienced and are experiencing mental health problems. Some have turned to substances such as alcohol to cope. If people become too reliant on alcohol, they could require rehabilitation for alcohol addiction and other forms of assistance. 

But learning about COVID-19 and discussing our knowledge could prevent such adverse effects. We don’t know everything about COVID-19. Even experts disagree about what the virus is and what it could do. 

Uncertainty, though, is better than complacency. Asking questions compels us to answer them, yielding information that is bound to help in many ways.

Author Bio: Patrick Bailey is a professional writer mainly in the fields of mental health, addiction, and living in recovery. He attempts to stay on top of the latest news in the addiction and the mental health world and enjoy writing about these topics to break the stigma associated with them.  

Sources

hopkinsmedicine.org – First and Second Waves of Coronavirus

statista.com – Number of new cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States from January 22 to September 10, 2020, by day*

bipartisanpolicy.org – Top 10 Things You Need to Know About the Coronavirus (COVID-19): September 2020

ama-assn.org – COVID-19’s “first wave” may be the only wave – with no pause

washingtonpost.com – Experts project autumn surge in coronavirus cases, with a peak after Election Day

bloomberg.com – New York City Prepares for a Second Wave, with a Chance to Blunt the Worst

advisory.com – A fall COVID-19 spike could be coming. (And it won’t look like anything we’ve seen so far.)

huffpost.com – What We Know (And Still Don’t Know) About Asymptomatic COVID-19